Election 2010: The Bloodbath That Never Happened

In recent weeks, the media have described today's election as a certain bloodbath for the Democratic Party. The results, however, look much more measured. As of 12:48am on the East Coast, it appears that the GOP will regain control of the House, but Democrats will maintain control -- although to a lesser degree -- of the Senate.

Several recent elections have brought about similar shifts in congressional power. In 1994, both the Senate and the House went to the GOP, along with many state governorships. In 2006, both chambers shifted to the Democrats. So, 2010 is actually a little better for the Democrats than recent election results.

Furthermore, historical data indicate that the president's party has performed poorly in midterm elections during most of modern US history. Also, considering the wretched state of the economy, the Democrats could have easily suffered from a complete loss of power in Congress. This, outcome, however, did not occur.

Needless to say, Democrats lost some tough races. Senator Russ Feingold -- probably the last remaining progressive in the Senate -- lost in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak lost to Pat Toomey by a very narrow margin. Also, in Florida, Charlie Crist lost the Senate race to Marco Rubio. Even though Crist led the three-candidate race immediately after he abandoned the Republican Party, Kendrick Meek (a Democrat) managed to pull enough liberal votes away from Crist, which threw the election to Rubio.

In Nevada, however, Harry Reid has defeated Sharron Angle. Angle, who is probably best known for her comical efforts to escape the media, ran as an anti-government, anti-social security, anti-Department of Education, Tea Party candidate. Surprisingly, despite her obviously limited intellect, she kept the race tight until the very end. Reid, however, is very unpopular among voters. Nevertheless, he has won close elections in the past, and he benefits from labor union support, which gives him a massive "get out the vote" machine. Apparently, the machine worked -- despite massive voter discontent.

The media will probably craft an electoral narrative designed to create drama and to draw traffic to their web pages. Ultimately, however, the election tallies (as exit polls indicate) likely result from one simple factor: voters' feelings of vulnerability about the economy. This same vulnerability caused them to abandon Republicans, elect President Obama and expand Democratic control of Congress in 2008.

In 2008, I warned exuberant Democrats that the election results did not mean that the American electorate had become wildly liberal. Similarly, the results of today's election do not indicate that the country is wildly conservative. Instead, partisans have voted for their parties' candidates, while moderates and independents voted against many Democrats because they are afraid of the economy. If the economy picks up by 2012, the election should provide for some very interesting and close races.

I will try to add more analysis later today -- time permitting.

Gaffe A Minute: Sharron Angle Thinks Disclose Act Is Already Law (But It Is Not)

The Las Vegas Sun reports that Sharron Angle has made another major gaffe. During a recent interview, Angle stated that the Disclose Act already exists. It, however, does not. Furthermore, debate over the proposed campaign finance legislation has been tabled because not enough Senators were willing to invoke cloture.

Angle is providing a gaffe a minute. Also, Rasmussen, a conservative pollster, released a poll today showing Harry Reid leading Angle 45-43. Rasmussen says that the Nevada race "leans Democrat." It is not surprising that Angle's handlers are trying to keep her away from the media.

OUCH II: Another Scathing Review of Sharron Angle by Las Vegas Journalist

John L. Smith, a writer for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, has written a scathing analysis of US Senate candidate Sharron Angle. Angle, a Tea Party-endorsed candidate, has imploded since she won the Republican primary.

Several polls now show the highly unpopular Sen. Harry Reid leading the race. Smith says that Angle can only blame herself -- although she often blames the "liberal media" and Reid's "lies." Here is a clip from the article:

God, the infallible campaign adviser, has a plan for Sharron Angle's U.S. Senate candidacy against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

I have learned this not from the ultimate source, mind you, but from a recent interview Angle gave to David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network.

"When God calls you he also equips you and he doesn't just say, 'Well, today you're going to run against Harry Reid,' " Angle said. "There is preparation. Everyone in the Bible, when you read the Bible, you can see that preparatory time. Moses had his preparatory time. Paul had his preparatory time. Even Jesus had his preparatory time. And so my preparation began on a (Nye County) school board."

Moses. Paul. Jesus. Sharron.

That's good company. For a hack politician to compare her journey in any way to the roads traveled by Moses, Paul or Jesus is simply audacious, but in a short few months Angle has gained national notoriety for uttering such jaw-dropping jibberish.

Jon Ralston -- a writer for the Las Vegas Sun -- also published a very critical assessment of Angle today. Even though it is too soon to predict the results of the midterm elections, the tide has certainly turned against Angle (and other Tea Party candidates).

OUCH: Las Vegas Journalist Declares "Sharron Angle Is Dead"

Las Vegas Sun writer Jon Ralston has made a very ominous declaration for Nevada Republicans: "Sharon Angle is dead. . . ." Ralston offers a pretty dreadful picture regarding the future of Angle's campaign to become a US Senator. Here is a clip from the article:

With Angle’s hot air balloon leaking helium about as rapidly as oil left that Gulf well — 45 days and counting and the GOP Senate nominee still has not plugged it — the question is whether she can survive the fall to earth.

At least three polls I know of show Angle trailing Harry Reid, including Friday’s Mason-Dixon survey that has the Senate majority leader ahead, 44-37, outside the margin of error. Even if you don’t believe one of the polls, the trend is inescapable and the race’s dynamic is fundamentally altered.

Coming up on the 100-day mark until the election — and only three months until early voting starts — Reid remains manifestly unpopular, with more than half of those surveyed indicating they will not vote for him. But his strategy of driving people away from Angle and into either a “none of the above” posture or a oh-how-it-pains-me-to-vote-for-him stance has worked to perfection.

For more on the difficulty that Tea Party candidates face in general elections, see: Can Tea Party Candidates Win Elections In Less Conservative States?


UPDATE: Another Nevada journalist has ripped apart Angle's campaign. See: OUCH II: Another Scathing Review of Sharron Angle by Las Vegas Journalist.

Can Tea Party Candidates Win Elections In Less Conservative States?

In several Republican primaries, Tea Party-endorsed candidates enjoyed great success. Sharron Angle won the Nevada primary for US Senate by a landslide and started the general election campaign with a huge lead against incumbent Sen. Harry Reid.

In Florida's Senate contest, Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio forced Republican Gov. Charlie Crist to run as an independent. Polls showed that Crist would have lost the primary election to Rubio by a wide margin.

Finally, in Kentucky, Rand Paul defeated his Republican primary challenger by a comfortable margin. Paul emerged from the primary with a huge lead over his Jack Conway, his Democratic opponent.

These victories, combined with a simplistic media narrative that portrays the election results as a bad sign for incumbents, helped to fuel the belief that the Tea Party was a powerful new political force that would wield tremendous political power in November. Many commentators, however, are now rethinking that message.

Once conservative Tea Party candidates began running general election campaigns and receiving scrutiny from the national media, their leads, particularly in politically divided states, evaporated. Today, a Mason-Dixon poll shows that Harry Reid now leads Angle by 7 points. In Florida, most polls have shown Crist leading Rubio since he abandoned the Republican Party. In addition, the latest poll has Conway and Rand tied in Kentucky (which is more conservative than either Nevada or Florida).

It is too soon to call these elections. Nevertheless, the tightening of the races confirms earlier analysis which predicted that Tea Party candidates would encounter difficulty in politically divided states -- even if they trounced opponents in Republican primaries. While Tea Party candidates should have an easy time in reliably conservative states like Utah and South Carolina, how they will perform in other jurisdictions remains an open question.

Harry Reid Might Be The Luckiest Senate Candidate

It is too soon to predict what will happen in the Nevada race for U.S. Senate, but Harry Reid's challenger Sharron Angle seems determined to prove that she is not ready for primetime. Check out this video footage from 8Newsnow.com, a local Las Vegas television station.




Finally, according to many websites -- including TPM -- Angle tried "to gain support for a prison drug rehabilitation program that would involve prisoners quitting drugs cold turkey, with saunas and massages as part of treatment -- an idea promoted by the Church of Scientology." During the Republican primary, Sue Lowden, Angle's opponent, ran a humorous ad criticizing the plan. Lowden, of course, ran into trouble for her own bizarre positions. Lowden suggested, for example, that healthcare reform could be accomplished if the country returned to a barter system, in which patients brought "chickens" to their physicians in exchange for medical services. Oh, Nevada!

Here is the prison massage campaign ad: