Election 2010: The Bloodbath That Never Happened

In recent weeks, the media have described today's election as a certain bloodbath for the Democratic Party. The results, however, look much more measured. As of 12:48am on the East Coast, it appears that the GOP will regain control of the House, but Democrats will maintain control -- although to a lesser degree -- of the Senate.

Several recent elections have brought about similar shifts in congressional power. In 1994, both the Senate and the House went to the GOP, along with many state governorships. In 2006, both chambers shifted to the Democrats. So, 2010 is actually a little better for the Democrats than recent election results.

Furthermore, historical data indicate that the president's party has performed poorly in midterm elections during most of modern US history. Also, considering the wretched state of the economy, the Democrats could have easily suffered from a complete loss of power in Congress. This, outcome, however, did not occur.

Needless to say, Democrats lost some tough races. Senator Russ Feingold -- probably the last remaining progressive in the Senate -- lost in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak lost to Pat Toomey by a very narrow margin. Also, in Florida, Charlie Crist lost the Senate race to Marco Rubio. Even though Crist led the three-candidate race immediately after he abandoned the Republican Party, Kendrick Meek (a Democrat) managed to pull enough liberal votes away from Crist, which threw the election to Rubio.

In Nevada, however, Harry Reid has defeated Sharron Angle. Angle, who is probably best known for her comical efforts to escape the media, ran as an anti-government, anti-social security, anti-Department of Education, Tea Party candidate. Surprisingly, despite her obviously limited intellect, she kept the race tight until the very end. Reid, however, is very unpopular among voters. Nevertheless, he has won close elections in the past, and he benefits from labor union support, which gives him a massive "get out the vote" machine. Apparently, the machine worked -- despite massive voter discontent.

The media will probably craft an electoral narrative designed to create drama and to draw traffic to their web pages. Ultimately, however, the election tallies (as exit polls indicate) likely result from one simple factor: voters' feelings of vulnerability about the economy. This same vulnerability caused them to abandon Republicans, elect President Obama and expand Democratic control of Congress in 2008.

In 2008, I warned exuberant Democrats that the election results did not mean that the American electorate had become wildly liberal. Similarly, the results of today's election do not indicate that the country is wildly conservative. Instead, partisans have voted for their parties' candidates, while moderates and independents voted against many Democrats because they are afraid of the economy. If the economy picks up by 2012, the election should provide for some very interesting and close races.

I will try to add more analysis later today -- time permitting.

Can Tea Party Candidates Win Elections In Less Conservative States?

In several Republican primaries, Tea Party-endorsed candidates enjoyed great success. Sharron Angle won the Nevada primary for US Senate by a landslide and started the general election campaign with a huge lead against incumbent Sen. Harry Reid.

In Florida's Senate contest, Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio forced Republican Gov. Charlie Crist to run as an independent. Polls showed that Crist would have lost the primary election to Rubio by a wide margin.

Finally, in Kentucky, Rand Paul defeated his Republican primary challenger by a comfortable margin. Paul emerged from the primary with a huge lead over his Jack Conway, his Democratic opponent.

These victories, combined with a simplistic media narrative that portrays the election results as a bad sign for incumbents, helped to fuel the belief that the Tea Party was a powerful new political force that would wield tremendous political power in November. Many commentators, however, are now rethinking that message.

Once conservative Tea Party candidates began running general election campaigns and receiving scrutiny from the national media, their leads, particularly in politically divided states, evaporated. Today, a Mason-Dixon poll shows that Harry Reid now leads Angle by 7 points. In Florida, most polls have shown Crist leading Rubio since he abandoned the Republican Party. In addition, the latest poll has Conway and Rand tied in Kentucky (which is more conservative than either Nevada or Florida).

It is too soon to call these elections. Nevertheless, the tightening of the races confirms earlier analysis which predicted that Tea Party candidates would encounter difficulty in politically divided states -- even if they trounced opponents in Republican primaries. While Tea Party candidates should have an easy time in reliably conservative states like Utah and South Carolina, how they will perform in other jurisdictions remains an open question.

Another Poll Shows Charlie Crist Leading US Senate Race in Florida

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll has Independent Charlie Crist with an 11-point lead over Republican Marco Rubio and a 28-point lead over Democrat Kendrick Meek in a 3-way race for US Senate. Although the results of this poll show Crist with a much larger lead than other recent polls, virtually all of the other polling data regarding the US Senate race in Florida show Crist with a slight lead.

Crist abandoned the Republican Party to run as an Independent because he is quite unpopular among Florida's conservative Republican base. Had Crist run as a Republican, Rubio would probably have trounced him in the primary contest. Crist, however, enjoys a great deal of support among Independent voters and among moderate Democrats and Republicans.

Charlie Crist Vetoes Abortion Bill

Florida Governor Charlie Crist vetoed a Republican-sponsored abortion bill that would have required a woman seeking an abortion to pay for an ultrasound and receive a description of the fetus from her medical provider. Women would not have to comply with this requirement if they could substantiate that they were the victims of rape, incest, domestic violence or sexual trafficking.

Earlier this year, Crist left the Republican Party and is running in the US Senate election as an independent. Most polls show him leading his challengers Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek.

Charlie Crist Still Leads Rubio and Meek in Latest Quinnipiac Poll

Yet another poll shows Florida Governor Charlie Crist leading his rivals Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek in the upcoming U.S. Senate race. The Quinnipiac poll has Crist ahead with 37% of the vote. Rubio has 33%, and Meek has 17%.

Crist recently left the Republican Party after it became clear that he would lose the primary to Rubio. Although Crist, a moderate, enjoys support from large numbers of Independents and Democrats and from a significant number Republicans, a higher percentage of conservative voters will participate in Florida's Republican Party primary (compared to the general election).

Conservatives despise Crist's centrist politics and favor Rubio, a rightwing conservative. Crist smartly abandoned the GOP ticket after it became apparent that conservative ire would cost him the nomination.

Two New Polls Show Florida Gov. Charlie Crist Would Win Senate Election

Two new polls show that Florida Governor Charlie Crist would win a 3-way election for US Senate. Rasmussen has the unaffiliated Crist ahead of  Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek with 38% of the vote, compared to 34% for Rubio and 17% for Meek.  A Mason-Dixon poll has similar results, with Crist getting 38%, Rubio 32% and Meek 19%. 

Last month, before Crist announced his separation from the Republican Party, a Quinniapiac poll predicted that he would win a 3-way contest. A Rasmussen poll, however, gave Rubio the lead.

These numbers are most disturbing for Democrats. Meek trails badly in all of the recent polls, and Crist continues to get more attention than all of the candidates. The political rumor mill is already asserting that Democratic leaders will quietly back Crist if Meek cannot turn the tide. Because of his moderate-to-liberal positions, Crist will likely steal more Democratic (rather than Republican) votes.

I suspect that Florida and national Republican leaders, however, will continue bashing Crist. Why? He is clearly a political threat.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist Will Run As An Independent

Florida Governor Charlie Crist will soon announce that he will run as an Independent in the upcoming US Senate race. Although Crist was once a Republican superstar, he now trails conservative Marco Rubio by double-digits in most polls surveying Republican primary voters.

Florida does not have open primaries, and Tea Party voters have a stronger voice in the South than in other parts of the country.  They also have a much stronger voice in Republican primaries than in general elections.

Polls show a much tighter race if Crist runs as an Independent. Crist will announce his decision tomorrow during a  press conference according to several media sources.

For more analysis, see: Chris Cillizza's Weak Analysis of Charlie Crist's Possible Independent Senate Campaign.

Republicans Seem Absolutely Horrified That Crist Will Run As An Independent

Republicans appear even more desperate in their effort to isolate Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Crist is pondering an Independent candidacy in the upcoming Senate race. Polls show him losing the Republican primary to rightwing candidate Marco Rubio.  Other polls show Crist winning or running a close second in a 3-way general election contest.

Several big name national Republicans have moved to support Rubio now that Crist has publicly stated that he might run as an Independent. Yesterday, the GOP sent a stern warning to Republicans who want to support an Independent Crist: do so and risk getting kicked out of the party:

In a memo sent to party officials Thursday, the state party's general counsel decreed that because party officials -- from local precinct captains to national committee members to legislators -- signed an oath to support Republicans, they would be obligated to oppose Crist's unaffiliated campaign and ask for any donations to be refunded.

``Any member who fails to formally revoke his or her public support and request the return of any contributions made to a candidate running against the candidate of the Republican Party would be in violation of the RPOF Rules and would be subject to removal from party office and membership on Republican executive committees,'' said the memo from Jason Gonzalez, who used to be the general counsel of Crist and ousted chairman Jim Greer.

My Take
As a progressive, I would certainly prefer a staunch liberal to either Crist or Rubio. But, Kendrick Meek, the Democratic contender, is largely unknown, and I am not sure that Florida will elect him as Senator.

Crist can provide a moderate alternative to Meek and Rubio. Given the "purple" status of Florida, Crist could indeed win the general election. This is exactly why Republicans are scrambling to isolate and marginalize him.

Chris Cillizza's Weak Analysis of Charlie Crist's Possible Independent Senate Campaign

Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza has attempted to distinguish Florida Governor Charlie Crist from Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman. Many commentators (myself included) have compared Crist and Lieberman. 

Lieberman lost the Democratic primary in Connecticut because many liberals opposed his stance on the Iraq War. Lieberman, however, ran as an Independent and won the election by drawing votes from moderates and from his loyal supporters among Democrats.  Similarly, Crist faces deep anger from conservative Republicans because he has embraced moderate and liberal causes (including the stimulus package).

While the conservative base of the Republican party despises Crist, he maintains a lot of support among moderate Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Indeed, a recent Quinnipiac poll shows that Crist would lose the Republican primary in a landslide, but that he would defeat Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek in a 3-way general election.

Despite these similarities, Cillizza describes independent runs by Lieberman and Crist as fundamentally distinct. Cillizza makes several claims to support his argument.

First, Cillizza argues that the Florida Senate race would involve a "real" 3-way race, while the Connecticut contest did not. Cillizza overstates this "distinction."

Polls consistently show that Meek is relatively unknown. This situation will remain unchanged while the media continue to focus on the battle between Crist and Rubio and the possibility that Crist will run as an Independent. If Crist abandons the Republican Party, the media will direct all of their analysis (again) on Crist's campaign, leaving Meek to struggle for attention. 

Polls also show that Crist would trounce Meek in a two-way competition, but that Meek would fair better against (but still lose to) Rubio. The 3-way race is only "real" in Florida because no Republicans would support Meek, but many Democrats would vote for him or for Crist. Very few Democrats, however, would vote for Rubio. A potential 3-way race is competitive because Crist has the power to draw moderates from both parties (and from among Independent voters) -- which is precisely what makes this contest like the one in Connecticut. 

Cillizza, however, predicts that by running as an Independent, "Crist runs the real danger of lacking any sort of electoral base to depend on." Cillizza's argument, however, does not appreciate the complexity of the Florida electorate -- which has proven to be among the most "purple" in the nation (see here). Cillizza's observation also contradicts his own claim that a 3-way race in Florida is "real." The race is competitive precisely because Crist's base consists of moderates from both parties and from among unaffiliated voters.

Second, Cillizza argues that Lieberman could frame his abandonment of the Democratic Party as a principled stance. Crist, however, would look more opportunistic, because polls show he has no chance of winning the primary. This difference is not meaningful because under the rules in Florida, Crist can only decide to run as an Independent  before the primary. He cannot choose the path that Lieberman pursued and run as an Independent after losing the primary election.

Cillizza's final two arguments are too speculative to merit much discussion. Specifically, he predicts that Crist will encounter difficulty raising money and putting together a team of advisers. These issues might very well hinder Crist's rumored Independent run, but they do not seem so inevitable that they distinguish Crist's run from Lieberman's.  In 2006, Cillizza predicted deep hardships for Lieberman following his primary defeat, but Lieberman ultimately won the 3-way contest as polls indicated he would. Given this history, Cillizza should take a more nuanced approach to Crist's possible Independent campaign.

Republicans Are Scared That Charlie Crist Will Run As An Independent

Everyday, another Republican politician lends support to Marco Rubio, the candidate who is challenging Florida Governor Charlie Crist in the upcoming Senate election. A recent poll, however, shows that while Rubio would trounce Crist in the Republican primary, Crist would win a 3-way general election against Rubio and Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek, if he decided to run as an Independent.

There is a simple explanation for these poll results. Crist is a centrist. He embraced the stimulus package and other policies of the Obama administration. Furthermore, he recently vetoed a controversial bill that would have ended tenure for public school teachers and linked their salaries and recertification to student performance on standardized tests. Republican leadership strongly favored the legislation.

Florida is a purple state. Bill Clinton lost Florida by less than 2 percent of the vote in 1992, but he won the state in 1996.  George W. Bush won Florida by a hair in 2000 and by a few points in 2004. And in 2008, Obama carried the state by a slight margin. The state has a number of Independent voters, and registered Republicans and Democrats have crossed party lines in recent elections. Crist's appeal among moderate voters makes him a viable threat in a general election (which is what makes this analysis so bankrupt).

By contrast, Florida has closed primaries. Thus, only Republicans can vote in the primary pitting Crist against Rubio. Typically, a party's base is most influential in primary elections. And in the South, this means that conservatives have a loud voice in Republican primaries. Conservatives are not happy with Crist-the-moderate. The general election, however, is a completely different ideological contest. If Crist ran as an Independent, there is a strong possibility that he would defeat the Republican and Democratic candidates.

So, when Republicans like Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani endorse Rubio, they are only trying to marginalize Crist and to make him unpopular.  They also want to let him know that he could suffer politically among Republicans if he runs as an Independent. But these calculations might not impact Crist's decision.  If Crist decides that he values winning over running as a Republican, he could jump ship and seek the Senate position as an Independent.  On this issue, the scenario looks a lot like Joe Lieberman's Independent run in Connecticut (except that the state is liberal, but open to moderate Democrats and Republicans).

Chutzpah: Florida Governor Charlie Crist Vetoes SB6

Florida Governor Charlie Crist has vetoed SB6, a controversial bill that would have linked teacher salaries and recertification to student performance on standardized tests.  Although both Democrats and Republicans opposed the measure, support for the bill was strongest among Republicans.

Crist, a Republican, faces a tough primary challenge from conservative candidate Marco Rubio in the upcoming senate race.  Rubio has run a campaign that links Crist to President Obama, which harms the governor among the conservative base in the Republican Party.

Although Crist trails Rubio substantially in most polls, a new Quinnipiac poll shows that Crist would narrowly win the general election contest if he ran as an Independent. Crist, who has defied conservatives on issues like the stimulus and healthcare reform, has stronger support among Democrats and Independents than Rubio.

My Take: Congratulations, Florida! Crist acted sensibly, and I hope he runs as an Independent. The veto suggests that Crist has in fact decided to abandon the Republican ticket, because his defiance on this issue will likely further erode his support among conservatives.

See also: Will Florida Governor Charlie Crist Veto Controversial Merit Pay Legislation?

Will Florida Governor Charlie Crist Veto Controversial Merit Pay Legislation?

Update: Crist vetoed the bill.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist is sinking rapidly among Republicans.  Nonetheless, Crist enjoys significant support among Democrats and Independents. In fact, a recent Quinnipiac poll shows that Crist would win the general election for the senate if he runs as an Independent. Currently, Crist looks like a sure loser in the Republican primary.

Republicans are angry that Crist embraced the stimulus package -- which did a lot more to help public schools in Florida than the misguided merit pay legislation SB 6. The legislation would tie teacher salaries and recertification to student performance on a host of standardized -- yet undeveloped -- tests. Teachers overwhelmingly oppose the legislation.  Even award-winning teachers who stand to gain from the measure have condemned it.

The measure would likely make low performing "poverty schools" even less attractive to talented teachers because it would exacerbate existing pay inequities and job insecurity. But lawmakers apparently do not mind playing political football with something as vital as education.  Teachers should face quality evaluations, but standardized testing is woefully inadequate in this regard.

Hopefully, Crist will give up the dream of being the moderate Republican Senator from Florida and run as an Independent. Apparently, the Florida Republican base is a site of major Tea Party activity. The general population in Florida, however, is not as spellbound by the movement. 

If Crist vetoes the legislation, he will further anger Republican voters, but he will potentially generate even more appeal among Democrats and Independents -- who disfavor the legislation. Vetoing the legislation would also be consistent with the numerous other ways in which Crist has been a true Republican maverick. Will he do it?

The Palm Beach Post has an insightful editorial on this subject.  See: Crist has no weasel room: On merit pay, it has to be all or nothing

Update: This article has been edited to reflect the fact that the legislation would also base recertification upon student performance on standardized tests.

Quinnipiac Poll: Charlie Crist Would Win as an Independent

A new Quinnipiac poll shows that Florida Governor Charlie Crist would win the upcoming senate election if he ran as an Independent. Crist, however, faces an uphill battle as a Republican candidate.

The poll shows that Republican challenger Marco Rubio leads Crist by 23 points among Republicans. But in a general election 3-way contest with Democratic challenger Representative Kendrick Meek, Crist would win with 32 percent of the votes (followed by Rubio and then Meek).

According to the polling data Crist draws more support from Democrats and Independents than Rubio.  In a 2-way contest, Crist outperforms Rubio against Meek, although both candidates lead the Democratic contender.